The overall aim of this theme is to assess the vulnerability of species to climate change. For the purposes of the CCSG, we define vulnerability as the predisposition of a species to be adversely affected by expected future changes in climate.
The activities we have planned for the next few years are organized in three related directions: species assessments; vulnerability science; and guidance and tools.
The goal of this group of activities is to support SSC Specialist Groups in incorporating climate change into their species assessments. This includes IUCN Red List assessments, as well as more general vulnerability assessments. Currently there are 3 activities in this group:
- Red List and Climate Change
Goal: Facilitate the incorporation of climate change projections and other aspects of climate change science into the IUCN Red List assessments.
- Regular updates to the Red List Guidelines, in collaboration with the Red List Standards and Petitions Sub-committee (of which Helen, David and Resit are members).
- Developing one or a few case studies demonstrating the 4-step protocol for assessing extinction risks under climate change, detailed in section 12 of the Red List Guidelines.
- Collaborating with the “Modeling Support” and “Colombian Amphibians” activities (see below) to provide expertise on demographic components of Red List assessments.
- Three studies tested the ability of the IUCN Red List to identify species vulnerable to extinction due to climate change (Pearson et al. 2014; Keith et al. 2014; Stanton et al. 2015). Collectively, these studies found that the IUCN Red List criteria can identify species vulnerable to extinction because of climate change, and can do this with sufficient warning time in most cases. However they also showed that warning times may be short in data-poor situations, and if conservation action is started only when a species is listed at the highest IUCN threat category (Critically Endangered). Therefore, there is a need for further development of the guidance for using the IUCN Red List system, especially in data-poor situations.
- A commentary in Nature Climate Change (Akçakaya et al. 2014) summarized the findings of the studies discussed above, and proposed future directions for research and development for preventing species extinctions resulting from climate change.
- Colombian Amphibians
Goal: Incorporating climate change models and species vulnerability into Red List assessments of amphibians in Colombia.
Expected product: Red List assessments of Colombian Amphibians that incorporate climate change.
Goal: Maintaining and updating the CCVA guidelines.
- Published review of CCVA of species for WIREs Climate Change
- Review of post 2015 literature on CCVA, including on validation of CCVAs using observed CC impacts;
- Updates to the CCVA decision-making processes guided by the results of this review;
- Updated CCVA guidelines.
- A trait-based method for assessing climate change vulnerability, applied to all birds, amphibians and corals (Foden et al. 2013).
- IUCN SSC Guidelines for assessing species’ vulnerability to climate change.
- A review of correlative, mechanistic and trait-based methods for assessing species vulnerability to climate change (Pacifici et al. 2015).
The goal of this group of activities is to support the development of novel approaches for advancing the science of assessing risks to biodiversity from climate change. Currently, two activities are planned.
- Future Human Responses
Lead: Stephen Willis (to be confirmed)
Goal: To assess the impacts of future climate change on global terrestrial biodiversity (principally birds and mammals), by incorporating species traits and human pressures into dynamic species distribution models.
Expected product: Publication summarising climate impacts on these two groups globally, and an evaluation of potential pinch-points and regions of potential future rapid species loss without intervention.
- Contribution to integrative case study
Leads: (to be confirmed)
Goal: To contribute to one or more case studies of species that each integrates impacts, vulnerability and adaptation themes of the CCSG. Each case study will focus on a single species and use a variety of detailed models, simulating a set of retrospective and prospective scenarios. Two retrospective scenarios (with and without past climate change) will explore quantitative methods for attribution of biotic change to climate change. Two or more prospective scenarios (with and without adaptation measures modeled for the future) will explore approaches to quantify expected conservation impact.
Expected product: Publication demonstrating the use of species models for quantifying impacts of past climate change and effectiveness of future adaptation measures, integrating methods and results from the impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation themes of the CCSG.
Guidance and Tools
The goal of this group of activities is to provide evolving guidance and tools for assessing risks to biodiversity from climate change based on the latest scientific advances. These are directed both to the SSC Specialist Groups and the wider conservation community.
- Modeling Support
Lead: Richard Pearson
Goal: To support modelling efforts of SGs/RLAs, by: (i) providing a list of resources (data sources, modelling tools, etc.); (ii) reviewing the modelling methods, data, etc. that a SG is planning to use; and (iii) providing feedback on the interpretation of their results.
Expected product: The initial product will be a dedicated webpage that:
- Sets out the aims and function of the support group, and instructions on how to use the site as well as the services of the team.
- Lists a core set of members, who will be the first port of call for reviews and will function much like editors on a journal, soliciting external reviews as necessary.
- Collate key online resources, including case studies and training resources (tools, videos, etc.).
- Climate science
Lead: Andrew Hartley (to be confirmed)
Goal: To provide technical support for all CCSG activities in terms of climate science, allowing close collaboration of CCSG members with climate scientists as the CCSG develops guidance for other specialist groups of IUCN on various topics related to climate change and species conservation.
Expected products: Guidelines, tools and other resources for a range of climatology topics, such as using outputs of global and/or regional climate models, selecting climate change scenarios (RCPs), and choosing between alternative methods for regional downscaling of climate projections, all in the context of species assessment and conservation. Specific issues include the relative reliability of different earth system models in different regions, particularly for variables of biological importance that are less frequently used in SDMs (such as maximum and average length of wet and dry spells).